Post by firstname.lastname@example.org
-- she's pulling ahead again
This chart doesn't have any margion of error figures.
Theoretical Hil beat Theoretical Don in 2016, too.
5 points is nothing.
2016 Presidential election results:
Candidate Party Popular % Pop EC % EC
Donald J. Trump R 62,985,134 45.93% 304 56.5%
Hillary Clinton D 65,853,652 48.02% 227 42.2%
Write-ins 1,154,084 0.84% 7 1.3%
Gary Johnson L 4,489,235 3.27% 0 0.0%
Dr. Jill Stein G 1,457,226 1.06% 0 0.0%
Evan McMullin Ind 732,273 0.53% 0 0.0%
Other 453,880 0.33% 0 0.0%
Total 137,125,484 538
Is the 5% lead in that array of polls distributed in such a way
that HRC would obtain an electoral college victory? I doubt
anyone would know. That woould take suitably granular polls in
each of the 50 states. No need to poll DC, as the Republicans
have no chance of winning that. Maybe just polling the "battle-
ground states" would bive us a decent idea. Who would pay for that?
A pro-Hillary PAX looking to waste money?
My gut feeling is that a 2020 Clinton campaign would run into similar
problems as the 2016 one: appearing "too establishment," alienating
white, older, working-class men, and prey to a Democratic rival who
is more sympatico with younger, more radical constituencies.
Sanders and Clinton having a deathmatch, beating each other over
their heads with cane and walker might be amusing to watch.
Given the Donald's Big Mac addiction, one would one one of his
coronary arteries will save us from THE PRESIDENT II: EVEN HUGER.
(Note: I voted for Johnson/Weld.)